For those of you who’ve been following The Chatter, we initially experimented with Plotlines but couldn’t quite get it right. We were still figuring out what the ideal “Plotline” should look like.
We’ve now arrived at a structure we’re genuinely happy with.
Plotline is designed as an extended version of Chatter—one where we track a single theme across companies and across time. We bring together management commentary, trace how narratives evolve over quarters, and connect these insights to build a coherent storyline.
Consider it a more structured version of The Chatter and this is our first proper edition. We’d love to hear what you think.
Going forward, we’ll take one theme at a time, explore it across sectors and timelines, and try to make sense of it through the lens of company management commentary.
Birla Opus entered the paint market with aggressive pricing and a deep wallet. Three quarters of earnings calls later, here’s what the incumbents have been saying — and doing — as they adjusted.
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When Birla Opus launched in FY25 — backed by Aditya Birla Group’s balance sheet, priced well below the market, and offering extra grammage on top — it was the first serious new entrant the Indian paint industry had seen in decades. The working assumption, among analysts and investors, was that this would force a race to the bottom. Incumbents would match the discounts, margins would compress, and the sector’s premium valuations would need rethinking.
Three quarters of earnings calls have produced a different, messier picture. What follows is what the managements of five listed paint companies said — and, at points, what Birla said about itself — quarter by quarter, as the industry figured out what the entry actually meant.
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Q1 FY26: “The initial euphoria is over”
By Q1 FY26, Birla Opus had been in the market for roughly a year. The first thing incumbents wanted to talk about was what was happening at the dealer counter.
Berger’s Abhijit Roy was the most direct:
“The initial euphoria is over completely. That’s gone. You know that initially, that curiosity, the enthusiasm that was there, something new, something great is happening — that is completely gone.”
— Abhijit Roy, MD & CEO, Berger Paints | Q1 FY26
The reason, he said, was straightforward economics. More Birla dealers meant more competition between them — which meant thinner margins for each.
“Once with the network expansion happening heavily and inter-dealer competition increasing, that margin of profit has reduced considerably. And as a result of that there is a little bit of a loss of interest from the dealers. People might be feeling that some of these dealers might be coming back to the legacy companies with whom they have been dealing in the past, because once they see that there is no great margin, and the movement of the product is nothing great.”
— Abhijit Roy, MD & CEO, Berger Paints | Q1 FY26
Akzo Nobel was seeing something similar and had launched a formal program for it. Rohit Totla, Akzo’s Whole-time Director, described the counter-offensive:
“Wherever we saw an action, we were very quick in talking to our retailers and bringing them back to the fold, what we call a program called ‘Ghar Wapsi’. And that is where within a quarter we were able to bring back. In the last five quarters, this aggressive competition was there but we were able to do better than the market.”
— Rohit Totla, Whole-time Director, Akzo Nobel India | Q1 FY26
Nerolac’s Pravin Chaudhari reported the same:
“In fact, we are seeing the reversal now. Many dealers of ours who started batting with competition has now started coming back to us. I think they are realizing power of Nerolac brand as well as groundwork that our team does as well as consumer and painter activity that we’re doing.”
— Pravin Chaudhari, MD, Kansai Nerolac Paints | Q1 FY26
Birla, for its part, had a different reading of the same quarter. Rakshit Hargave, CEO of Birla Opus, pointed to a starker picture of the industry without his company in it:
“On a QoQ annual basis, the market has grown only at 5%. And if you remove Birla Opus, then the market is actually minus one or zero. So, obviously, Birla Opus has taken a lion’s share of the growth, which has happened on an annual basis.”
— Rakshit Hargave, CEO, Birla Opus (Grasim Industries) | Q1 FY26
But the impact wasn’t uniform. Akzo’s Rajiv Rajgopal mapped the disruption geographically — and the pattern was uneven:
“If I break India into four regions, the impact of the new competition was highest in South, followed by a bit in West, Punjab and North largely, and East has been very minimal.”
— Rajiv Rajgopal, Chairman & MD, Akzo Nobel India | Q1 FY26
Nerolac confirmed. South was the pressure point, particularly for players already weak there:
“South continues to be a problem for us because as such, we are weak there. And given the onslaught of competition and extra focus on South by most of the leading player, there has been the issue for us.”
— Pravin Chaudhari, MD, Kansai Nerolac Paints | Q1 FY26
Asian Paints, the market leader, framed the disruption differently. Amit Syngle argued that Birla’s discounting was pulling in the trade — contractors and dealers — not the end consumer:
“Sometimes it is the intermediary who benefits a little bit more in terms of looking at what extra the person is getting because that might result in a higher margin for the intermediary which could be a contractor, which could be a dealer. So, to some extent it is like a discount... and not too much of a consumer proposition.”
— Amit Syngle, MD & CEO, Asian Paints | Q1 FY26
One thing all five companies agreed on: the disruption was playing out at the bottom of the market, not the top. Berger’s Roy:
“In the luxury, premium segment, brand plays a far bigger role there. It is difficult to change a customer in this particular area. However, at the lower end or at the mid-lower end, it is relatively possible, with the effort of the influencers to change customer preferences.”
— Abhijit Roy, MD & CEO, Berger Paints | Q1 FY26
And then there was Indigo Paints — the niche player that had spent Q1 pushing back on the doomsday narrative:
“The prediction of outsiders was that this will devastate the margins of the paint industry. And we were all collectively saying that, that is not going to happen. Everybody’s gross margin is more or less the same as what it was a year ago or 1.5 years ago.”
— Hemant Jalan, Chairman & MD, Indigo Paints | Q1 FY26
That was Q1. Dealers reportedly drifting back. Regional variation. Premium holding. Margins intact. The tone across boardrooms was cautious but composed.
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Q2 FY26: “Let’s not kid ourselves”
By Q2, the composure started showing cracks. Not because anything dramatic happened — but because growth hadn’t.
“The overall industry would not be growing more than about 3.5 to 4%. Therefore, we were very clear that we need to really shift our gear in terms of how we really galvanize the market, how do we look at playing to our strengths in a very strong manner.”
— Amit Syngle, MD & CEO, Asian Paints | Q2 FY26
Akzo’s Rajgopal dropped the most candid assessment of the quarter:
“There is a fight happening in the market between a market leader and a very strong challenger. Let’s not kid ourselves in saying that it has had impact on the profitability of the industry and also the market shares of all the players, maybe lesser on some of us, more on a few others. But the reality is it has had an impact.”
— Rajiv Rajgopal, Chairman & MD, Akzo Nobel India | Q2 FY26
He also mapped where, specifically, the new entrant had gained ground:
“80% of the growth has come from mass market, economy, putty, textile, construction chemicals. And these are segments where some of the established players found it too difficult to react because it would be hugely dilutive to the margin and the profitability of the business.”
— Rajiv Rajgopal, Chairman & MD, Akzo Nobel India | Q2 FY26
Something else had changed at Akzo between quarters. The Jindal family had taken a controlling stake, and the mandate from new ownership was unambiguous:
“The brief from Mr. Parth Jindal has been very clear to us as a team — let’s get after revenue and get back to high growth and get back to market share gain. So our endeavor starting from September has been to look at where are we significantly premium. And that’s where we’ve been taking some price corrections to make sure we are far more competitive.”
— Rajiv Rajgopal, Chairman & MD, Akzo Nobel India | Q2 FY26
Those corrections were already underway — cumulative price cuts of 1.5-2% across the portfolio.
On the other side, there were signs that Birla’s initial sprint was flattening. Berger’s Roy:
“By stabilization, I mean, the sales figure is not jumping upwards, as was happening in the past few quarters. The numeric reach is not expanding at a very fast clip. It’s improving, but at a normal pace, as would happen for any industry player.”
— Abhijit Roy, MD & CEO, Berger Paints | Q2 FY26
Indigo’s Jalan was blunter:
“New player is now stagnating. They were taking a 5%, 6% market share in the first year. Now they are more of a status quo.”
— Hemant Jalan, Chairman & MD, Indigo Paints | Q2 FY26
Birla’s own filings suggested otherwise. By Q2, all six manufacturing plants were operational — 1,332 million litres of annual capacity. Himanshu Kapania, Birla Opus’ business head:
“This makes Birla Opus the second largest decorative paints company commanding 24% of the industry capacity, a feat unmatched around the globe for speed and cost. Now we focus all our energies to bridge the gap between our volume market share and capacity share.”
— Himanshu Kapania, MD & Business Head, Birla Opus (Grasim Industries) | Q2 FY26
The extra grammage scheme — where Birla offered 10% more paint per can — was also being scaled back:
“For most products, this extra grammage that they were giving, originally in 4-liter, 10-liter and 20-liter cans, I believe that they have discontinued it in the 4-liter and 10-liter cans. And there are rumors in the trade that this extra grammage even in the 20-liter cans may get discontinued before the end of the fiscal.”
— Hemant Jalan, Chairman & MD, Indigo Paints | Q2 FY26
Nerolac, meanwhile, was making a deliberate choice — pulling back from the segments where the fight was fiercest:
“We are reducing our exposure on all the ancillaries and parties, which is actually getting into commodity play and people are using it as more of an entry kind of product. Despite reducing our inputs on these products, there was no major impact as far as the network defection is concerned.”
— Pravin Chaudhari, MD, Kansai Nerolac Paints | Q2 FY26
And Berger flagged an asymmetry that defined the competitive dynamic — in the ad spend war, the new entrant was outspending its position:
“The new entrant, their share of voice is much higher compared to their market share. In our case, we used to be similar to our market share, but now it is slightly below that.”
— Abhijit Roy, MD & CEO, Berger Paints | Q2 FY26
Q2 was where the industry moved from acknowledging the disruption to responding to it. Growth was tepid. The mass market had been conceded to a degree. Price corrections had begun. And Birla’s growth curve was bending.
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Q3 FY26: “It will still take 2-3 quarters”
By Q3, the language across the sector had shifted from “disruption” to something more settled — a recognition that the new competitive landscape was now simply the competitive landscape.
“From a point of view of competitive intensity, it is bound to remain now. We have obviously newer competition; we have also amalgamation of two players which is coming in the market. So, I think we will have the competitive environment continue as we go ahead.”
— Amit Syngle, MD & CEO, Asian Paints | Q3 FY26
Akzo’s Rajgopal, still the most forthcoming voice in the room, laid out the pricing gap in full:
“You are talking of a new entrant which has come at prices which are anywhere up to 12% lower than the prices at which we operate, in addition to additional discounts, and then there was the 3-litre which while you say it’s been called off, it’s still there in a few markets. So, you are talking of a band between 12% and 18% lower pricing which is not a small sort of a negate.”
— Rajiv Rajgopal, Joint MD & CEO, Akzo Nobel India | Q3 FY26
And then a striking admission. Akzo had been benchmarking its own pricing and found it wasn’t just Birla undercutting them — they’d been off-market for a while:
“We looked at our pricing across our premium brands and some of our other offerings versus some of the lead players. And we did see that we were usually overpriced between 5% and 9%, which is what had led to volume erosion. We have addressed some of those.”
— Rajiv Rajgopal, Joint MD & CEO, Akzo Nobel India | Q3 FY26
His timeline was sober:
“I would love to believe that the worst is behind us, but I think the reality is that it will still take 2-3 quarters for it to really play out.”
— Rajiv Rajgopal, Joint MD & CEO, Akzo Nobel India | Q3 FY26
Berger’s Roy offered the clearest picture of market share movement across the industry:
“Market leader has also lost market share. It has gone mostly to Birla. If you take Birla also into one of the categories — given that whatever they say, we assume that this is what they have done — then there is a slight gain in market share for them, and losses for everyone else in the system.”
— Abhijit Roy, MD & CEO, Berger Paints | Q3 FY26
Birla’s own numbers quantified the gain. Kapania claimed revenue market share had expanded by over 300 basis points year-on-year:
“Birla Opus accelerated its market share gain with revenue growth of nearly 3x the Indian decorative paints industry growth rate, inclusive of Birla Opus.”
— Himanshu Kapania, MD & Business Head, Birla Opus (Grasim Industries) | Q3 FY26
He also named the asymmetry at the heart of the spending war:
“The player that you spoke about is much in excess of the market share that they hold, and that’s their entry strategy, which they don’t have to worry about their profitability. We do, and we are very conscious about it.”
— Abhijit Roy, MD & CEO, Berger Paints | Q3 FY26
One area where the incumbents remained secure: the premium end had held.
“In premium, I don’t think that the order is really reversed. While people have tried — one of the faster growing newer emerging players, when they got into the project business, they started getting consumer complaints and we started getting some of those businesses back.”
— Rajiv Rajgopal, Joint MD & CEO, Akzo Nobel India | Q3 FY26
Birla had started nudging prices upward — two increases totaling 2-2.5%. But starting from 5% below market, the incumbents were unmoved.
“The price change about Birla Opus is not very significant. 2%, 3%, I don’t think is going to really change much as far as industry is concerned. As such, Opus was lower by 5%.”
— Pravin Chaudhari, MD, Kansai Nerolac Paints | Q3 FY26
Though in some segments, the gap was genuinely narrowing:
“They were at 5% discount in DPL itself. Now, they have taken price increase — two price increases totaling 2 to 2.5% approximately. Some of them are now almost matched in the luxury category.”
— Abhijit Roy, MD & CEO, Berger Paints | Q3 FY26
Birla’s explanation for the increases was matter-of-fact:
“We always want to maintain a particular distance from the market leaders, and we felt the distance was slightly more than what was necessary and we are bridging that gap. That is the objective of price increase and there is no other objective.”
— Himanshu Kapania, MD & Business Head, Birla Opus (Grasim Industries) | Q3 FY26
Indigo’s Jalan, who had spent three quarters arguing the disruption was overstated, delivered his closing assessment:
“Time has borne itself out that we were right. Nobody’s profitability has been impacted. Yes, a new entrant may have taken some market share at a significant cost to itself — that is their business.”
— Hemant Jalan, Chairman & MD, Indigo Paints | Q3 FY26
He also hinted at Indigo’s own next move — using the highest gross margins in the industry as ammunition:
“Why should we not think of going even more aggressively on trade discounts and maybe sacrifice a percentage point from our gross margin — we’ll still be the highest. But if sales can grow disproportionately higher, then our EBITDA margins will not be impacted.”
— Hemant Jalan, Chairman & MD, Indigo Paints | Q3 FY26
Meanwhile, the elevated competitive intensity hadn’t eased:
“Ending Q3, we have not seen any change in the intensity on all the fronts — whether it is influencer, whether it is dealer discounting, or investment in the manpower.”
— Pravin Chaudhari, MD, Kansai Nerolac Paints | Q3 FY26
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— — —
Over three quarters, the conversation in Indian paint boardrooms moved from cautious first reactions to active recalibration to a quieter acknowledgment: this is how the industry works now. The extra grammage is being wound down. Birla’s growth has flattened. But the spending hasn’t come down, and the pricing gaps remain wide in the segments that matter most.
What to watch
Birla’s price trajectory. Two increases so far, totaling 2-2.5%. They’re still meaningfully below market in most segments. Whether that gap keeps narrowing will shape the next phase.
Akzo under Jindal ownership. The most visible recalibration underway — price corrections, a revenue-first mandate, market-by-market repricing. The results start showing in Q4.
Mass and economy margins across FY27. This is the segment Birla’s entry actually reshaped. Whether incumbents can compete here without eroding their margin profile is the open question.
The dealer homecoming. Three companies have reported dealers returning. The painting season will test whether that’s a structural shift or a seasonal blip.
The next entrant. Asian Paints flagged the JSW-Nippon amalgamation. Another variable entering an already crowded field.
That’s it for now! Your feedback will really help shape how The Chatter evolves. Drop it down in the comments below!
Quotes in this newsletter were curated by Kashish.
Disclaimer: We’ve used AI tools in filtering and cleaning up these quotes & narratives so there maybe some mistakes. Now, if you are thinking why we are using AI, please remember that we are just a small team of 5 people running everything you see on Zerodha Markets 😬 So, all the good stuff is human and mistakes are AI.
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